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VisualizationsApplied Machine Learning

Scaled Forecast Error

Slide how far a forecast misses each day. R² keeps saying it beats a flat average, but scaled error compares it with simply repeating yesterday.

Actual usersModelRepeat yesterdayAverage (155)
100200users012345678910day
Model misses by5 users a day
Model MAE 5 · Repeat-yesterday MAE 10
vs the average
R²
0.97
beats the average
vs yesterday
scaled error
5 ÷ 10 = 0.5
beats yesterday

The model's line sits between the actual line and repeating yesterday. It beats both rivals.

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