At one fixed test input , expected prediction error decomposes as
where is the irreducible noise of the data-generating process at . It is a property of the process itself, so it takes the same value for every model fitted to that process. It was never measured directly.
Model A has already been fully profiled at :
| Quantity | Value |
|---|---|
| Variance | |
| Expected MSE |
Model B uses a different learning procedure. Retraining it on independently drawn training sets makes its prediction at a random variable with the distribution
| Prediction | Probability |
|---|---|
and the true underlying value at that point is
What is Model B's expected MSE at ?
Round your answer to 2 decimal places.