An analyst's prior belief about a website's conversion rate is
She then runs a test on 40 visitors, of whom 18 convert and 22 do not. The Beta distribution is the conjugate prior for Bernoulli trials, so the posterior is again a Beta.
She wants the single most likely value of — the value at which the posterior density peaks, not its average.
What is the mode of the posterior distribution? For with and , the mode is . Round to 4 decimal places.
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