A subscription company starts with a Beta(2,3) prior on θ, the probability that a customer renews.
Analyst 1 updates sequentially:
- On Monday she observes 6 renewals and 2 non-renewals, and updates the Beta(2,3) prior.
- On Tuesday she takes Monday's posterior as her new prior and feeds in Tuesday's 10 observations (4 renewals, 6 non-renewals) one at a time, in a randomly shuffled order.
Analyst 2 discards the intermediate step entirely. He pools all 18 observations and applies a single Beta–Binomial update to the original Beta(2,3) prior.
Which statement correctly describes the two analysts' final posteriors?